An Analysis Of 100 Baggers Alpha Ideas-PDF Free Download

An Analysis of 100 baggers Alpha Ideas

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An Analysis of 100-baggers Analysis by Tony www.tsanalysis.com [email protected] This is an analysis of past 100-bagger s



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are read on the right hand scale In the charts I ll be showing of the 100 baggers I only plotted
the green dashed line because it was too cluttered with the yoy quarterly EPS growth rates
displayed Note that the steps of both the red and green lines are three months wide
representing the figure for that quarter Lastly the dashed purple line is the PEG ratio PE ratio
divided by growth rate Here I defined my PEG ratio as the ttm PE ratio divided by the yoy
percentage change in ttm EPS I defined it this way mostly for convenience but the result is that
it is more of a backwards looking PEG ratio as opposed to a forward looking PEG ratio The
purple line is also read on the right hand scale with 50 being a PEG ratio of 5 100 being a
PEG ratio of 1 and so on
I will start by sharing some of the conclusions I reached
1 The most powerful stock moves tended to be during extended periods of growing earnings
accompanied by an expansion of the PE ratio And when I mention earnings I mean earnings
per share For example take a stock which has ttm EPS of 1 and a ttm PE ratio of 10 The
stock is trading at 10 Say over the next few years the stock grows ttm EPS to 2 5 and the
market rewards the stock with a ttm PE ratio of 40 The stock is now trading at 100 resulting
in a 10 bagger The increase in stock price was far greater than the increase in earnings due to
the PE expansion Likewise the most powerful moves to the downside were during periods of
decreasing earnings accompanied by PE contraction
2 These periods of PE expansion often seem to coincide with periods of accelerating earnings
growth By that I mean a period when earnings growth rates are not just being maintained but
are increasing sequentially For example consider the following two hypothetical stocks
FLAT and ACC Say that both FLAT and ACC had EPS in 2000 of 4 1 in each quarter of
2000 FLAT has 2001 earnings of 1 25 in Q1 25 growth rate yoy 1 25 in Q2 25 growth
rate yoy 1 25 in Q3 25 growth rate yoy and 1 25 in Q4 25 growth rate yoy for total
earnings in 2001 of 5 per share 25 growth yoy ACC has earnings in 2001 as follows
1 10 in Q1 10 growth rate yoy 1 20 in Q2 20 growth rate yoy 1 30 in Q3 30
growth rate yoy and 1 40 in Q4 40 growth rate yoy for total earnings in 2001 of 5 per
share 25 growth yoy For the full year 2001 both FLAT and ACC grew earnings by 25
yoy However ACC s yoy earnings growth rate was increasing quarter to quarter while FLAT s
growth rate was staying steady throughout the year Now I m not saying one is better than the
other In fact accelerating earnings growth rates are inherently less sustainable than steady
growth rates However in the past 100 baggers I looked at accelerating growth rates appeared
more likely to coincide with PE expansion
3 Some of the most attractive opportunities occur in beaten down forgotten stocks which
perhaps after years of losses are returning to profitability To quote Peter Lynch The true
contrarian is not the investor who takes the opposite side of a popular hot issue i e shorting a
stock that everyone else is buying The true contrarian waits for things to cool down and buys
stocks that nobody cares about and especially those that make Wall Street yawn The main
thing to be aware of is that these forgotten stocks can remain so for years so it is important to
wait until you believe sustainable improvement in fundamentals is imminent The moves in
these forgotten stocks when the fundamentals start to turn can be powerful resulting in 10
baggers in a short amount of time
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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4 During such periods of rapid share price appreciation stock prices can reach lofty PE ratios
This shouldn t necessarily deter one from continuing to hold the stock as the uptrend can
continue as long as the PEG ratio remains attractive below 1 or preferably below 5 As long
as the fundamentals and valuations remain attractive a second 10 fold increase after an initial 10
fold increase would turn your 10 bagger into a 100 bagger
It s nice to talk about theory but it s far more interesting to see actual examples In the charts
which I ll be showing I plotted closing prices as far back as I could find and earnings lines as far
back as SEC filings went which was usually around 1995 I ll note again that the closing prices
are adjusted for splits So when you see a stock price of say 0 10 in 1995 the stock never
actually traded at 10 cents that is just the split adjusted price in a few cases where there were no
stock splits the shares did actually trade at those penny levels however Also for expediency s
sake for figuring the market caps at various points in time which I annotated on the charts I
simply multiplied current shares outstanding by the adjusted closing price at that point in time
I ll start with one which I think is kind of a classic example of the conclusions I mentioned
previously The stock is HANS Hansen Natural Corp Over the course of about a decade the
stock increased over 800 fold or in Lynch terms an 800 bagger Think about that for a second
1 000 invested at the bottom would have turned into over 800 000 at the top Now it is highly
unlikely to buy at the exact bottom and sell at the exact top and in some cases it may not even
have been possible to put much money into these stocks at the bottom due to the very low
volumes at the time However it is a convenient way to compare relative movements and it is
none the less fun to play what if HANS big growth driver was Monster Energy which was
initially sold in only a few markets Popularity grew and distribution was expanded nationwide
fueling huge growth I actually discovered HANS fairly early on but saw that the stock had
already tripled in the previous few years I didn t do the necessary due diligence and quickly
dismissed it and therefore missed out on the opportunity to own a stock which continued on to
enjoy a further 20 fold increase from that point
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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HANS wasn t really beaten down or forgotten but it wasn t widely followed when it began it s
meteoric rise The prominent feature of this chart is the period of increasing earnings growth
rates which was sustained from roughly 2001 through 2006 as indicated by the green arrow It
began in 2001 with earnings growth rates simply becoming less negative from worse than
100 yoy in Q2 to 30 yoy in Q3 to 20 yoy in Q4 In 2002 the earnings growth rates
continued to climb to only slightly negative 0 no change yoy or slightly positive In 2003
yoy growth rates climbed to 20 40 and 100 in the last three quarters respectively In
2004 growth really started to ramp up with yoy increases of 120 150 170 and 220 in Q1
through Q4 respectively The trend continued with yoy growth rates above 200 for most
quarters of 2005
In 2001 HANS had ttm EPS of around 0 04 split adjusted and was trading at around a 10 PE
as represented by the pink earnings line or a share price around 40 It is kind of hard to see
because the earnings lines are so compressed and are covering the closing price In 2006 HANS
had ttm EPS of around 1 00 and had reached a PE of around 50 represented by the darker red
earnings line resulting in a share price in the 50s While EPS had increased 25 fold over that
time frame from 04 to 1 00 share price had increased 125 fold from 40 to 50 due to the
PE expansion This PE expansion pointed out by the red arrows coincides with the increasing
growth rates indicated by the green arrow Also note that during most of this period of PE
expansion the PEG ratio remained very attractive as indicated by the purple dashed line and
note So even as HANS PE ratio climbed from 10 to 20 to 30 to 40 to 50 the movement was
sustainable because growth rates were increasing as well so the PEG ratio remained low
I spent awhile on HANS since it was sort of a textbook example of a lot of the key features I
wanted to point out On the following examples I ll move a little quicker The next example is
MED Medifast Inc I m sure you re familiar with this maker of weight management products
MED was a 230 bagger over the course of a decade
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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What is especially interesting about MED is that it had three parabolic rises in that time span in
2003 2006 and 2009 In each instance notice the increasing earnings growth rate periods
pointed out by the green arrows and green dashed line the PE expansions pointed out by the red
arrows and earnings lines and the attractive PEG ratios noted in purple which sustained the
parabolic rises
My next example is another nutritional product company and another 200 bagger NTRI
Nutrisystem I m sure you ve seen their commercials so I ll get right to the chart
Again the prominent feature is the period of increasing growth rates indicated in green In
NTRI s case there doesn t appear to be as much PE expansion it consistently traded at a high PE
ratio However the yoy growth rates were so high note the limits on the scale on the right that
the PEG ratio remained low throughout the rise purple note
Now for a few more examples featuring the effect of the increasing earnings growth rate trend
TASR Taser International whose products are probably familiar and BLUD Immucor an in
vitro diagnostics company were both 100 baggers BYI Bally Technologies a gaming
equipment company was a 300 bagger A couple of companies in the basic materials sector
BOOM Dynamic Materials and TIE Titanium Metals Corp were over 100 baggers As was a
shipping company EXM Excel Maritime Carriers The effect was even apparent in com
companies be it YHOO Yahoo which was a 100 bagger in a stunningly short 3 years or
SOHU Sohu com In each of these examples the increasing growth rate periods are noted by
green arrows It may not always be a perfect ladder of sequentially increasing growth rates but
the trend is apparent
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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The next few charts I am going to show are examples of 100 baggers which went through both
periods of increasing earnings growth rates and periods of steady growth rates The first is
GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters which markets coffee and tea products to retailers and
distributors GMCR went through a period of steady earnings growth from about mid 2003
through mid 2006 followed by a period of increasing growth rates in 2007 then three quarters of
steady growth rates in 2008 and then a couple more quarters of increased growth rates in 2009
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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From mid 2003 through mid 2006 yoy growth rates were fairly steady at around 10 25
GMCR traded around 20 times ttm EPS until mid 2005 and then traded around 30 times ttm EPS
until late 2006 In 2007 GMCR had a period of increasing yoy growth rates During this time
GMCR s ttm PE expanded reaching as high as 80 Growth rates then remained steady at around
70 in 2008 during which time the stock moved in a sideways channel resulting in the PE ratio
decreasing In 2009 growth rates increased again to around 150 and PE expansion occurred
again This example illustrated the effect of periods of increasing growth rates correlating to
rapid PE expansion and periods of steady growth rates correlating to moderate PE expansion or
periods of consolidation
Next is TGIS Thomas Group Inc TGIS is a small micro cap company which at its peak only
had a 160 million market cap Quoting from its business description TGIS is a professional
services company that executes and implements process improvements and culture change
management operations strategies That hardly screams high growth industry or highly scalable
business model Yet TGIS was a greater than 100 bagger in the span of roughly 4 years
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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TGIS went through a period of increasing growth rates followed by a period of steady growth
rates followed by a resumption of increasing growth rates During the period of steady growth
rates TGIS shares moved sideways even though steady 100 yoy earnings growth was being
maintained When the growth rate increases resumed so did the share price appreciation
Next up is MIDD The Middleby Corporation a seller of commercial food service equipment
MIDD went through a period of increasing growth rates followed by a period of steady growth
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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Although it was very choppy the trend from early 2001 through early 2004 was for generally
increasing growth rates During this time PE ratio expansion occurred from roughly 10x ttm
EPS to roughly 30x ttm EPS From late 2006 through 2009 earnings growth rates were pretty
steady at around 25 MIDD s ttm PE ratio was range bound between 20 and 25 much of this
Another example is DELL a very rare 1000 bagger
DELL went through a period of increasing growth rates from 1997 through 1999 which
coincided with an expansion of the ttm PE ratio Later in its life DELL went through a period of
steady growth rates between 2003 and 2006 where yoy growth rates remained around 25
DELL s ttm PE ratio hovered between 30 and 40 much of this time
Here are a few more examples of 100 baggers which went through both periods of increasing
growth rates and steady growth rates ASFI Asta Funding a servicer of distressed consumer
receivables CEDC Central European Distribution Corp a distributor of alcoholic beverages
and CETV Central European Media Enterprises a TV broadcaster which is the biggest gainer I
have been able to find thus far a staggering 4000 bagger
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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Finally one last 100 bagger where the trends weren t immediately apparent to me ERTS
Electronic Arts a video game publisher
I would say that from 2001 2004 was the period of increasing growth rates but it was very
choppy Video game publishers can be tricky because they almost share characteristics of
cyclicals around the console transitions They go through periods where they invest heavily in
R D developing engines for the next gen consoles but the installed base is not very large yet so
they are not profitable as is apparent by the dip in earnings in 2001
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks
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To summarize from my analysis it appears that a key ingredient for igniting parabolic rises in
share price is a sustained period of increasing growth rates This period of increasing growth
rates as opposed to merely steady growth rates often drives the market to bid up stocks to
higher PE ratios This PE expansion causes the share price appreciation to outpace the increase
in earnings The parabolic rise can continue even as the stock reaches higher and higher PE
ratios as long as the increase in growth rate keeps pace and the PEG ratio remains low Knowing
how much further an uptrend can go could mean the difference between a 10 bagger and 100
bagger Often times these parabolic increases start after a period when the stock has been
forgotten or ignored and is embarking on a return to profitability
I included every 100 bagger I looked at on this page I didn t pick and choose which ones I
showed I could have done more there are definitely more 100 baggers out there However
each one is fairly time consuming because I have to go through the 10Qs and 10Ks all the way
back to 1995 and put together my spreadsheets and charts I felt that the group I had was pretty
diverse across industries market caps geographies and time periods I thought going into this
exercise that 100 baggers might mainly be limited to certain sectors or occur mainly during
certain bubble times such as tech stocks or the dot com bubble Certainly there were a fair
share of those However there were also 100 baggers I found in unexpected sectors I thought
most 100 baggers may be story stocks but there were also 100 baggers in boring companies
Beginning with small market caps or depressed share prices was practically universal however
Overall I was encouraged that there are multi bagger opportunities if not necessarily 100
baggers out there to find still in all kinds of sectors
Disclaimer I am not an investment advisor or financial analyst just a guy who likes to analyze stocks


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